Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 4.142941 4.912031 5.765212 6.779170 7.948517 9.251829 10.811414
2025-06-01 2.845804 3.834020 5.055397 6.663376 8.710461 11.214036 14.490185
2025-06-08 2.067867 3.114226 4.533239 6.568927 9.379206 13.081687 18.279543
2025-06-15 1.690153 2.798467 4.423333 6.925138 10.612444 15.765879 23.409136
2025-06-22 1.348034 2.436906 4.151342 6.964558 11.358191 17.823457 27.876879
2025-06-29 1.089815 2.137864 3.899984 6.963093 12.000990 19.758601 32.329325
2025-07-06 0.889921 1.886160 3.667382 6.933062 12.563383 21.595102 36.778613
2025-07-13 0.819422 1.852169 3.794580 7.513468 14.172932 25.209091 44.309016
2025-07-20 0.717971 1.733062 3.742641 7.760614 15.231007 28.013252 50.770227
2025-07-27 0.639331 1.642091 3.724836 8.059784 16.402066 31.097496 57.938540
2025-08-03 0.545880 1.495964 3.569744 8.067273 17.030274 33.288142 63.752177
2025-08-10 0.444735 1.306199 3.287992 7.775157 17.047494 34.380485 67.718921
2025-08-17 0.352862 1.117275 2.977878 7.387705 16.853930 35.113259 71.196159
2025-08-24 0.295600 1.003470 2.817901 7.300229 17.256590 37.005157 76.975617
2025-08-31 0.247988 0.902525 2.668315 7.211029 17.641521 38.894085 82.904167
2025-09-07 0.229687 0.883835 2.721671 7.602848 19.103795 43.030279 93.458734
2025-09-14 0.199360 0.817831 2.637538 7.647444 19.797998 45.668027 101.267465
2025-09-21 0.171928 0.752504 2.541652 7.646482 20.385134 48.129304 108.901591
2025-09-28 0.147638 0.689903 2.440198 7.614069 20.891943 50.458527 116.432023
2025-10-05 0.144917 0.707463 2.579792 8.244694 23.051333 56.500481 132.036748
2025-10-12 0.132549 0.683248 2.586869 8.513083 24.352256 60.764902 144.193264
2025-10-19 0.122661 0.665986 2.612698 8.837838 25.826715 65.522872 157.704236
2025-10-26 0.107250 0.619275 2.532759 8.845969 26.496583 68.519451 167.620626